Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 1/5 Fayble Online Regional
decks
6
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
18-13-3
overall winrate
57.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
53.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1365
· median 1450
· range 1085–1518
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1226
Q3 1479
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.1% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 51.9% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.6% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 59.6% | +5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
